Posted by on Dec 8, 2020
Backcasting is an analytical technique that establishes an imagined future scenario and then works backwards to understand what caused that outcome. At VB2020, FireEye's Jamie Collier presented a paper in which he applied the technique to imagine the rise and fall of the cyber threat intelligence (CTI) industry over the next 10 years.
Not content with the level of gloom already brought by 2020, Jamie's chosen future imagined scenario was the demise of the cyber threat intelligence industry itself.
Using the analytical technique Jamie highlighted the various hazards that could exist within the CTI industry – including vendors over-hyping threats and resorting to fear-based sales, a lack of empirical rigour within intelligence assessments, and CTI teams ostracizing themselves from security and leadership teams.
Jamie's observations offer an important opportunity to reflect on where we are as an industry, highlight the various hazards that could exist within the CTI industry, anticipate potential pitfalls, and consider how the industry can improve.
Jamie's VB2020 paper can be downloaded here (PDF).
If you missed VB2020 localhost don't worry, the content is still available to view at https://vblocalhost.com/.
